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The Rational Reminder Podcast: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Benjamin Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Dan Bortolotti
A weekly reality check on sensible investing and financial decision-making, from three Canadians. Hosted by Benjamin Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Dan Bortolotti, Portfolio Managers at PWL Capital.
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- 2 weeks ago1h 41m
How Leveraged ETFs Really Work (Marco Sammon & Chirs Murray) | #432
In this episode, we are joined by Chris Murray, quantitative researcher and former equity quant and trader, and Marco Sammon, Assistant Professor of Finance at Harvard Business School, for an exceptionally nerdy deep dive into leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Drawing on their research, Chris and Marco challenge common assumptions about daily rebalancing, volatility drag, and the long-term performance of leveraged products, offering a more rigorous framework for understanding how these investments actually work. We explore the mathematics of compounding, the surprising relationship between leverage and long-term returns, and the competing effects of what Chris and Marco call the "convexity bonus" and volatility drag. They explain why leveraged ETFs don't simply deliver a multiple of an underlying asset's long-term return, how financing costs and fund fees compound over time, and why a stock can rise substantially while its leveraged ETF still underperforms. We also examine how daily rebalancing can affect underlying stock prices, why these effects are more pronounced in volatile, less liquid markets, and how to assess the break-even return required for leveraged ETFs to outperform their underlying assets. Finally, we discuss what these findings mean for investors considering leverage as part of a portfolio, the distinction between modest leverage on diversified indexes and speculative single-stock products, and why the right benchmark matters when evaluating investment performance. This conversation challenges some long-held beliefs about leveraged ETFs while offering a clearer framework for understanding their risks, costs, and potential uses. Sources for this episode - https://zbib.org/123d8b5649124244b85a4f43846a1fb4 Key Points From This Episode: How leveraged ETFs target daily returns rather than long‑term multiples. Growth of leveraged ETFs, especially single‑stock and crypto products. Lottery‑like payoffs and speculative appeal of leveraged ETFs. Convenience: access to leverage without borrowing or manual rebalancing. Economic theory: human capital and equity exposure early in life. Risks of human capital — job losses and market declines coinciding. Why modest leverage (e.g., 1.25×) may align better with portfolio theory. Why 2× ETFs don't simply double long‑term returns of the underlying. Convexity bonus: daily resets can create squared‑return benefits. Volatility drag: fluctuations erode long‑term wealth in leveraged ETFs. Distinguishing compounding effects from volatility drag. Example: up‑10%, down‑10% → underlying loses 1%, 2× ETF loses 4%. Interaction of convexity and volatility drag, amplified by large moves. Daily rebalancing: how ETF trades can influence underlying stock prices. Trading costs embedded in closing auction prices rather than spreads. Reset intervals (daily vs. weekly/hourly): trade‑offs in drift and risk. Overlapping ETFs concentrating rebalancing activity during stress. Challenging the view that daily resets make ETFs unsuitable long‑term. Break‑even return: how much the underlying must gain for ETF outperformance. Fees, financing costs, and volatility drag erasing leverage benefits. Predictable rebalancing trades and risks of front‑running. Lucid example: intraday liquidation wiping out ETF investors. Financing costs explained: borrowing ratios for 2× vs. 3× funds. Distinguishing leverage's usefulness from product‑specific costs/risks. Could modestly leveraged index ETFs have a role in traditional portfolios? Comparing ETF‑based leverage with borrowing directly — fees, financing, and restrictions. Why speculative single‑stock leveraged ETFs attract attention while modest products struggle. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://pwlcapital.com/ PWL Team — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Rational Rem
- 3 weeks ago1h 6m
The Madness of Markets (Alex Edmans) | #431
In this episode, we welcome back Alex Edmans, Professor of Finance at London Business School and author of Grow the Pie, May Contain Lies, and The Madness of Markets. Drawing on academic research and real-world market examples, Alex explores how emotions, social influence, and psychological biases shape investor behavior—and why even apparently irrational markets can be difficult to beat. We examine how a country's stock market can react to a football loss, why investors overreact to exciting stories and underreact to less visible information, and how identical assets can trade at different prices. Alex also unpacks the evidence behind reversal, value, and momentum strategies, the challenges of exploiting market anomalies, and why skewed stock returns make diversification so important. The conversation ultimately returns to a fundamental investing question: even if you can identify market inefficiencies, do you have the edge, patience, and cost advantage needed to benefit from them? Sources From Today's Episode — https://zbib.org/7d62d23b5efc45f7b0b908b769cbfa92 Key Points From This Episode: How losing a World Cup match can affect a country's stock market—and what this reveals about emotion‑driven trading. The relationship between weather, sunlight, and market sentiment. Spurious correlations and data mining: why an apparent relationship needs a plausible economic explanation and out‑of‑sample testing. Wisdom versus madness of crowds: when collective judgments can be useful and when social influence leads investors astray. Overreaction in markets, from the pandemic‑era rise of Zoom to the dramatic response to Allbirds' AI rebranding. The reversal effect: why past losers can outperform past winners when investors overreact. Underreaction to long‑term information, including research linking strong workplace cultures with better stock performance. Misreaction and anchoring: how purchase prices can lead investors to sell winners too early and hold losers too long. Value investing and valuation multiples, including why a company's price relative to its fundamentals matters even when it is widely admired. Limits to arbitrage: why investors can be right about a market bubble but still fail to profit from it. The importance of investment horizons, illustrated by Alex's own equity allocation and a fund designed around a 40‑year horizon. The illusory truth effect: how repeated information can feel new and move prices, as illustrated by the market reaction to EntreMed. Momentum investing: why recent winners may continue winning, and how momentum appears across industries, sectors, and countries. The law of one price and examples of identical or closely related assets trading at different prices, including 3Com and Palm. The three recurring principles: markets work, diversification matters, and costs matter. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://pwlcapital.com/ PWL Team — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder on Spotify —https://open.spotify.com/show/6RHWTH9iW7hdnA7eAg7ukO?si=fe7f60349b584026 Benjamin Felix — <a href= "https://pwlcapital.com/our-te
- Oct 8, 20261h 6m
The Truth About Leveraged ETFs | #430
In this episode, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Kelly Thomas revisit some of the blind spots from their recent discussion about the finances of marriage before diving into a deeply nerdy discussion about leveraged ETFs. Kelly brings a different perspective to questions around spending roles, career sacrifices, financial autonomy, and the mental load of managing household finances. The main discussion explores leverage, human capital, volatility drag, and the long-held belief that daily resets make leveraged ETFs poor long-term investments. Ben explains how his own thinking changed after feedback from the Rational Reminder community and a growing body of research, arguing that daily resets themselves do not cause volatility drag—volatility does. The conversation examines when leverage might make theoretical sense, why the safety of human capital is a critical assumption, and why what looks optimal in a model may be difficult to stick with in real life. They also examine the practical risks and costs of leveraged ETFs, including financing costs, swap counterparty risk, extreme drawdowns, and the very different experience of leveraged index ETFs versus single-stock leveraged ETFs. The episode ultimately comes back to a broader financial planning question: if your financial goals can be achieved without leverage, do you actually need the additional risk? Key Points From This Episode: Kelly Thomas joins to discuss marriage and money. Household roles and mental load complicate "spendthrift vs. tightwad" labels. Career sacrifices (leave, reduced hours, missed promotions) carry lasting financial costs. Financial autonomy vs. infidelity—transparency doesn't mean loss of independence. Financial control can cross into abuse; independent access to money is essential. Ben revisits leveraged ETFs, challenging the idea that daily resets inherently cause decay. Historical performance of 3X S&P ETFs shows leverage depends on volatility, costs, and timing. Leverage amplifies exposure and volatility, often reducing compound returns. Models vs. reality: what looks optimal economically may be impossible to stick with. Income risk can coincide with market declines, creating economic and behavioral challenges. Diversification across time: spreading equity risk earlier in life through leverage. Leveraged ETFs during crises (2008, COVID) show extreme difficulty of holding through drawdowns. Leveraged ETFs offer convenience and non-recourse features, but financing costs are high. Total costs can exceed 5% annually; single-stock leveraged ETFs face even steeper hurdles. Kelly reframes: financial planning is about goals, not maximum returns—money is a tool, not the end. Links From Today's Episode: WEBINAR | A Conversation With David Booth (November 4, 12:15 ET)* — https://pages.pwlcapital.com/webinar-a-conversation-with-david-booth *The first 250 Canadian residents to register will receive a FREE copy of David's book, "Stay Calm Sources From Today's Episode — https://zbib.org/455c998cf1784f5299ff981c8b96f6d2 Meet with PWL Capital: https://pwlcapital.com/ PWL Team — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — <a href= "https://www.instagram.
- Oct 1, 20261h 7m
Who Causes Stock Market Anomalies? (w/ Victor Haghani) | #429
In this episode, we're joined by Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth and co-author of The Missing Billionaires, for a wide-ranging conversation about how different types of investors shape financial markets. Victor explains the framework behind his forthcoming paper, Who Killed the Random Walk?, and how fundamental investors, static investors, and extrapolators interact to produce momentum, excess volatility, and other market anomalies. We explore why return chasing is different from momentum investing, how investor flows and inelastic demand can move markets, and how the Merton share connects expected returns and risk to portfolio allocation. Victor also discusses long-short direct indexing and tax-loss harvesting, his experiment giving investors tomorrow's Wall Street Journal today, how AI performed in the same trading game, the role of leverage in financial markets, and when borrowing to invest might make sense. We finish with Victor's advice to his younger self: be intentional about financial planning, build financial literacy, and make a plan. Key Points From This Episode: Lessons from The Missing Billionaires—practical insights on sizing and the Kelly criterion. Who Killed the Random Walk?—persistent puzzles in stock returns: excess volatility, momentum, fat tails, booms, and busts. Victor's three investor types: fundamental value investors, static investors, and extrapolators. How static investors amplify market movements through inelastic demand. How investor types interact to shape volatility, momentum, and equilibrium. Wealth flows between investor types and how they create instability in simulations. Distinguishing extrapolative return chasing from systematic momentum strategies. How extrapolators create price trends that momentum investors exploit. The Merton share—risk premiums, volatility, and risk aversion in determining equity exposure. Combining value and momentum for higher Sharpe ratios. Long‑short direct indexing and how leverage increases tax‑loss harvesting. Why fees, complexity, and risk of direct indexing may not be worthwhile without alpha. The "crystal ball" experiment—advance information, poor sizing, and excessive leverage. The role of leverage in markets—ETFs, options, embedded leverage, and nonlinear instability. Why leverage can create nonlinear interactions and amplify market instability. When borrowing to invest can make sense, particularly for younger investors with substantial human capital and limited financial capital. Why borrowing costs, expected equity returns, risk, and the possibility of losing a large portion of savings make leverage a difficult decision. Why the risk-adjusted return from additional equity exposure matters more than the headline expected return. The relationship between human capital and leverage—and why human capital is not necessarily bond-like. Victor's advice to his younger self: be proactive, become financially literate, and make a lifetime financial plan. Why dedicating time to financial education can meaningfully change how people approach financial decisions. Sources From Today's Episode — https://zbib.org/62e42e55fae14cb0a1aa62941d6996a2 Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://pwlcapital.com/ PWL Team — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder on Spotify —https://open.spotify.com/show/6RHWTH9iW7hdnA7eAg7ukO?si=fe7f60349b584026 Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/</a
- Sep 24, 20261h 4m
Wealthy People Are Hiding in Plain Sight (ft. Owen Zidar) | #428
What happens when a small group of exceptionally wealthy people holds a growing share of a country's income and wealth? And what can economics tell us about the forces behind that concentration? In this episode, we are joined by Owen Zidar, professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University and coauthor of the forthcoming book The Everywhere Millionaire. We explore the rise of the millionaire class, how tax policy shapes inequality, and why the geography of wealth matters when trying to understand the economic landscape. We also discuss the role of entrepreneurship, industry-specific knowledge, and concentrated ownership in building wealth. Owen shares insights from extensive Treasury data, interviews with business owners, and research into the paths taken by millions of entrepreneurs. The conversation examines why access to capital may be less important than practical experience, how private equity can help or hurt business owners, and how local business consolidation can affect both consumers and workers. Finally, we explore the influence of "everywhere millionaires" on public policy, the impact of interest rates on wealth valuations, and possible ways to expand access to entrepreneurial opportunities without undermining economic growth. Sources From Today's Episode — https://zbib.org/75a6ae2e79a34ba8b5fb632f54816447 Books From Today's Episode — The Everywhere Millionaire: Who Is Really Rich in America and How They Got There by Owen Zidar Key Points From This Episode: Why the typical wealthy American is more likely to be a business owner than a celebrity or Wall Street executive. How "everywhere millionaires" can provide a roadmap for building wealth and understanding inequality. The rise of entrepreneurial income among the top 0.1% over the past several decades. Why the inequality debate often overlooks wealth generated by private businesses. Why the typical millionaire is more likely to be found on Main Street than Wall Street. The ordinary—and sometimes unusual—industries that produce substantial wealth. Why building wealth through business ownership often takes decades. The role of concentrated ownership and the risks involved in becoming wealthy through entrepreneurship. How failed businesses can still provide valuable human capital and career opportunities. Which early-career paths may put people on track to become business owners. Why domain expertise and industry experience can matter more than access to capital. The Treasury data, tax records, research papers, interviews, and other sources behind The Everywhere Millionaire. How lower interest rates, tax cuts, deregulation, and globalization contributed to wealth accumulation. What the data suggests about academic performance, risk-taking, and entrepreneurial success. Why attending an elite university is not necessarily a prerequisite for becoming wealthy through business ownership. The importance of early labor-market experience and practical knowledge in entrepreneurship. The factors that help certain places foster upward mobility. How family businesses, inheritance, and succession can shape the distribution of wealth. (0:38:06 How business owners can successfully exit their companies, including the role of seller financing. The potential benefits and drawbacks of private equity for business owners. How "stealth consolidation" can allow businesses to gain local market power without attracting regulatory scrutiny. The possible relationship between product-market power and labor-market power. <p d
- Sep 17, 20261h 18m
What to Know Before (and After) You Hire an Advisor (w/ Matthew Taylor) | #427
In this episode, we're joined by Matthew Taylor, a litigation lawyer with Sotos Class Actions in Toronto who represents retail investors and pension funds in securities class actions. We take a deep dive into what makes a successful negligence claim against a financial advisor, how courts assess fiduciary relationships in Canada, and what investors should look for when evaluating the people managing their money. We explore the evidence that can strengthen or weaken a negligence claim, from one-size-fits-all portfolios and unexplained trades to poor communication and failures to account for changing life circumstances. Matthew also explains the distinction between suitability and fiduciary standards, the factors courts consider when determining whether a fiduciary relationship exists, and why professional affiliations and explicit fiduciary commitments can matter. The conversation then turns to class actions, including how securities claims differ from individual negligence lawsuits, what makes a claim suitable for class proceedings, and why regulatory investigations, specialist law firms, litigation funding, and parallel U.S. proceedings can provide important signals. We also discuss pension funds, their role as plaintiffs, and why monitoring potential claims and settlements can be part of managing beneficiaries' assets. Finally, we examine the growing retailization of private assets and the risks created by limited information, complex structures, opaque fees, illiquidity, and manager-determined valuations. Matthew explains what advisors and clients should consider before investing in private funds—and why he expects more litigation in this area. We close with the legal and regulatory challenges created by financial influencers, and how investors and advisors can build greater resilience against misleading financial content. Key Points From This Episode: Advisor errors leading to negligence claims—KYC, KYP, suitability failures, plus warning signs like one-size-fits-all portfolios, unexplained trades, concentrated positions, churning, and double dipping. Why evidence matters: the gap between what people know and what they can prove in court. How investors can recognize poor advice—changes in communication, failure to address life circumstances, or lack of transparency. Importance of checking an advisor's regulatory history before entrusting significant assets. Investor vulnerabilities: age, education, language barriers, or sudden wealth. Steps after negligent advice—seek a second opinion, adjust the portfolio, and consider legal recourse quickly due to limitation periods. Risk capacity vs. risk tolerance, and overlooked risks such as liquidity, sequence-of-returns, and withdrawal risk. Advisors' uneven understanding of risk, shaped by firm/product-provider education and low industry entry barriers. Courts' five fiduciary factors—vulnerability, trust, reliance, discretion, and professional standards—and how fiduciary duties differ from suitability standards. Individual lawsuits vs. group/class actions, with securities class actions focusing on disclosure problems and asset-manager claims. Case studies: Sino-Forest fraud and challenges of private assets—opaque structures, layered fees, liquidity risk, and valuation issues. Regulatory challenges of finfluencers, difficulties in enforcement, and how advisors can inoculate clients against misinformation by teaching evaluation skills. Sources From Today's Episode — https://zbib.org/71e494008bb74d18a17de20419ca0647 Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://pwlcapital.com/ PWL Team — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Rational Reminder on Spotify — https://open.spotify.com/show/6RHWTH9iW7hdnA7eAg7ukO?si=fe7f60349b584026 Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ <p dir
- Sep 10, 20261h 8m
The Finances of Marriage | #426
In this episode, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Ben Wilson take a research-driven look at the finances of marriage, from spending personalities and prenuptial agreements to wedding costs, joint accounts, financial infidelity, and household decision-making. The conversation explores how the way couples think about and manage money can affect both financial outcomes and relationship satisfaction. We unpack the difference between being frugal and being a "tightwad," why tightwads and spendthrifts may be drawn to each other despite having more conflict later, and how simply understanding your partner's spending tendencies can improve financial conversations. We also examine the case for prenups, the role of optimism bias in avoiding them, and how couples can use legal agreements to deliberately design their financial arrangements. The discussion then turns to wedding spending, including the marketing forces behind engagement-ring conventions and research linking higher spending on rings and weddings with greater divorce risk in some samples. Finally, we look at the evidence for managing money jointly, the risks of financial infidelity, and why both partners should be involved in household financial decisions. The central theme throughout is simple: couples tend to be better served when they approach their finances as a team and communicate openly. The Tightwad-Spendthrift Scale Quiz — https://umich.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_55xxAQrYK0WRlY2 Sources — https://zbib.org/e8fec478786b4176b5011418f27a3fa4 Key Points From This Episode: Why who you marry can be one of the most consequential financial decisions of your life. Why marriage changes both the emotional and legal nature of a couple's financial relationship. Tightwads vs. spendthrifts: the psychology of the "anticipatory pain of paying." Why spending personality has little to do with how much money someone actually spends. How understanding your spending tendencies can be useful alongside traditional financial risk questionnaires. Why some people struggle to spend money even when they clearly have the financial capacity to do so. How upbringing, identity, and social comparison can influence attitudes toward spending. Why tightwads and spendthrifts are more likely to marry each other—and why those differences can create conflict later. How recognizing different spending tendencies can create healthier conversations and compromises. Prenups and marriage contracts: understanding the legal "default" before deciding whether to create your own arrangement. Why optimism bias and the negative signaling associated with prenups can make them difficult for couples to discuss. Why a prenup may be particularly relevant when partners enter a marriage with substantially different levels of wealth. How couples can use a prenuptial agreement to deliberately design financial arrangements around their circumstances and future needs. The origins of the "two months' salary" engagement-ring convention and the marketing of diamonds. Research on wedding spending, engagement rings, and divorce risk. Why wedding planning can become an early test of how couples handle financial differences. Why more wedding guests and having a honeymoon were associated with longer marriages in the study discussed. The evidence for managing finances together—and why joint accounts may not be the only way to do it. How different spending personalities might influence whether couples prefer joint or separate accounts. Why couples should establish clear expectations around significant purchases. Financial infidelity: what it means to hide financial behavior you expect your partner would disapprove of. Why financial decision-making should involve both partners rather than defaulting to one "financial spouse." Gender norms, financial confidence, and differences in how spouses participate in investment and planning decisions. Why involving the less financially engaged spouse can bring different—and valuable—perspectives to household planning. The importance of financial
- Sep 3, 20261h 23m
The Ethics Problem in Financial Services (Dr. Moira Somers & Philippa Hann) | #425
In this episode, we're joined by Philippa Hann and Dr. Moira Somers, co-authors of The Fault Lines of Finance: Understanding and Preventing Financial Misconduct, for a deep dive into why good people can do bad things with other people's money. Philippa brings two decades of experience suing financial advisors, wealth managers, and banks, while Moira brings her expertise as a clinical neuropsychologist working with financial professionals, families, and the human side of money. We explore the psychology and systems that can allow financial misconduct to happen, from financial stress, incentives, and information asymmetry to workplace culture, poor training, exhaustion, and the pressure to please. Philippa and Moira explain why ethical behavior is not simply about knowing right from wrong, and why developing "ethical health" requires understanding your own vulnerabilities, building a moral operating system, and having people you can turn to when doing the right thing becomes difficult. We also discuss how investors can evaluate financial professionals, why complexity and exciting financial products deserve extra scrutiny, the role of regulators and insurers, and why financial sophistication doesn't necessarily protect people from being exploited. Along the way, Philippa and Moira share case studies illustrating ethical drift, confirmation bias, and the ways seemingly small decisions can compound into serious misconduct. The conversation ultimately makes the case for moral humility, strong relationships, healthy organizational cultures, and the willingness to tolerate discomfort when something doesn't feel right. Key Points From This Episode: Introduction. What financial misconduct means and why "other people's money" matters. Philippa's 20 years in litigation and the core question: why do good people do bad things? Moving beyond harm prevention toward promoting positive change in financial services. Why financial services are especially vulnerable: access, incentives, and opportunity. Information inequality and extraordinary client trust in advisors. Even sophisticated investors can fail to ask critical questions. Misconduct isn't simply "good vs. bad people." How systems, incentives, and culture can draw well-intentioned people into misconduct. Ethical drift: how innocent mistakes can escalate into lying and misconduct. Building a personal "moral operating system" to prepare for dilemmas. Identifying vulnerabilities: people-pleasing, exhaustion, dependence, conflict avoidance. Journaling, defining non-negotiables, and developing ethical self-awareness. Importance of trusted people who can challenge your thinking. Personal strengths (confidence, ambition) can become vulnerabilities. Systems and culture can enable misconduct or make ethics easier Organizations must make it safe to surface mistakes. Developing "ethical health" alongside physical and mental health. Ethics requires more than knowing the right answer—it requires character and motivation. Why traditional ethics training often fails in real-world dilemmas. The moral operating system as an actionable framework for behavioral ethics. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — <a href= "https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben
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About The Rational Reminder Podcast
A weekly reality check on sensible investing and financial decision-making, from three Canadians. Hosted by Benjamin Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Dan Bortolotti, Portfolio Managers at PWL Capital.
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