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The Logic of Risk: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Pasquale Cirillo
A podcast about risk, probability, philosophy and data science.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
Latest Episodes
The most recent episodes — sign up to get AI-powered summaries of each one.
- May 29, 202518 min
LOR18: Introducing (simple) moments
In this episode we introduce moments, the bedrock of studying random variables and risk.We begin with a concise overview, then zero in on simple (raw) moments, the foundation upon which central and standardized moments are built. You’ll learn how to compute an expected value (the first moment) and how to extend the same principles to higher-order simple moments.Are you ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
- May 3, 202512 min
LOR17: Extremes and Outliers
In this episode, we dive into the critical difference between extremes and outliers. As we will soon discover, understanding this distinction is vital for accurate modeling, especially when assessing (tail) risk.We'll explore how both concepts relate to the range of possible values--the support--of a random variable and show you how to avoid common modeling pitfalls. Are you ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
- Apr 19, 202514 min
LOR16: The quantile function, the survival function and the PDF
In this episode, building on the cumulative distribution function F (CDF) introduced in Episode 15, we define the quantile function Q, the survival function S, and the probability density function f (PDF). We then explore how each of these tools helps describe the behavior of a random variable.Along the way, we also introduce Value-at-Risk (VaR), which becomes quite straightforward once you understand quantiles.Are you ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
- Apr 12, 202514 min
LOR15: The cumulative distribution function of a random variable
In this episode, we continue laying the foundations of our mathematical treatment of risk. In particular, we introduce the cumulative distribution function, or CDF, as a tool for describing the probabilistic behavior of a random variable. We illustrate this with a simple example and discuss the basic characteristics of this interesting non-decreasing function, which will soon help us address very practical matters.Are you ready to take the risk and follow Galileo's suggestion?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
- Apr 6, 202516 min
LOR14: Sigma-algebras and probability spaces
In this episode, we answer the question we left hanging at the end of Episode 13: What is a sigma-algebra?We will explore the properties of a sigma-algebra and explain why we want our event space to be one. Next, we will discuss probability spaces in a simple yet rigorous way, which will set the stage for understanding random variables and the mathematical treatment of risk measures.Finally, we will discover why it can be inconvenient to swim naked.Are you ready to wear a swimsuit?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
- Mar 29, 202517 min
LOR13: Back to risk, introducing risk measures
In this episode, we come back to the definition of risk and start discussing how we can measure it. That is why we need to introduce risk measures. But that requires us to be more formal and speak about the sample space and the event space in a more mathematical way.Ready to discover the power set?We are paving the way to introduce the probability space, a pivotal concept for us.Ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
- Mar 22, 202522 min
LOR12: Keynes, Jeffreys, Jaynes and finally Kolmogorov
In this episode, we conclude our overview of the various schools of thought on probability.We begin by examining the logicist perspectives of Keynes, Jeffreys, and Jaynes before transitioning to Kolmogorov's axiomatic definition.We will briefly review the three basic axioms of probability and explain why the axiomatic approach is not a definition in the traditional sense, but rather a framework that transcends the objectivist–subjectivist debate.Are you ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
- Mar 15, 202517 min
LOR11: Probability as logic, and the logic of probability.
This episode introduces logicism, examining how modern logic informs our understanding of probability. Can logicism be considered as a bridge between probabilistic objectivism and subjectivism? What did Wittgenstein think about probability?Is probability the new logic of science?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
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About The Logic of Risk
A podcast about risk, probability, philosophy and data science.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
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