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Eye On The Market: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Michael Cembalest
Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.
Latest Episodes
The most recent episodes — sign up to get AI-powered summaries of each one.
- Oct 8, 202626 min
Califoreboding
Many client questions I received last week in California were laden with a sense of foreboding: third rail questions about the US Federal debt as ten year yields blow through the Bessent Maginot line, the elevated share of US market returns and growth attributable to AI, the sustainability of US equity markets close to all-time highs, Anthropic’s dire warnings about open weight models and cyber risks, rising stress in private credit and European deindustrialization. Watch the video
- Sep 1, 202631 min
Rear Window
Over the last year, the Eye on the Market included views on sectors, rates and currencies. For this back-to-school piece, I prepared a rear window post-mortem on each. Watch the video
- Aug 12, 202620 min
The Year of the Trojan Fire Horse
The Year of the Trojan Fire Horse: China’s imbalanced economy and unrelenting mercantilism While there’s plenty of evidence to support Stephen Roach’s thesis of unsustainable imbalances in China’s economy, China is living up to anthropomorphic characteristics of this year’s zodiac, the Fire Horse, in at least one regard: bold moves, self-reliance, speed, action and innovation in the energy transition. Watch the video
- Jul 22, 202635 min
The Summer I Turned Pretty
I mean pretty as an adverb, as in pretty cautious on cyber risks, open and closed weight challenges to the frontier labs seeking to go public and some market technicals related to AI. Watch the video
- Jun 23, 202634 min
Semiquincententacles
Semiquincententacles: The US grip on markets on the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence Behold the Aquilaceph, half-bald eagle and half-octopus. On the semiquincentennial 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence, this imaginary beast is a metaphor for the continued US grip on financial markets. In this special issue we look at the details: US reserve currency status, capital flows, the much anticipated but still unprofitable “Sell America” trade, US corporate profitability and productivity in the age of AI, investing in Security & Resilience, equity market concentration, energy independence and the revival of the US IPO market. The biggest medium-term concerns for investors in US assets, other than the sustainability of the US Federal debt and cyclical inflationary pressures: the increased unpredictability in the rule of law, and government defunding of science and sidelining of scientific expertise. Watch the video
- May 26, 202627 min
Home Alone: inflation and the new Fed chair; investing in China’s AI ecosystem; Prediction markets
The new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, like Kevin McAllister in Home Alone, faces a lonely vigil: survive until the adults get home again. The latest on inflation, rising Treasury yields, shrinking equity risk premia and pressure from the White House. Also: investing in China’s home-grown AI ecosystem, and the predation in prediction markets. Watch the video
- May 4, 202630 min
Abandon Ship!
Abandon Ship! Topics: midterm elections, Spring thaw in US economic data, Strait of Hormuz oil rationing timeline, AI and data center update, Gulf State pipe dream, Congressional redistricting and Mythos update Summary: Despite improving US leading indicators and economic/stock market resilience, GOP House members are abandoning ship at a record pace. The midterm challenges for the GOP include declining blue-collar employment, soaring ACA premiums, a surge in commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and some unorthodox choices at the Department of Justice. Watch the video
- Apr 6, 202618 min
Salem’s Lot: Gulf War update; the Purge of senior US military officers; a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream
Salem’s Lot: an update on the Gulf War. Topics include international commodity price pass-throughs to the US, the limits of energy independence, Gulf temperatures and their relevance to US military options, the proposed Iranian toll on the Strait of Hormuz, the cost per payload of asymmetric warfare and our commodity price tracker. Also: the history of Presidential firings of senior US military officers, and a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream. Watch the video
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