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On The Market: Daily Summaries Delivered
by BiggerPockets
Join Dave Meyer, James Dainard, Kathy Fettke and Henry Washington for analysis of the news and economics driving today’s real estate market.
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- 4 days ago42 min
J Scott: The House of Cards Is Going to Fall
This economy is…confusing. Inflation is still high, AI is disrupting the labor market, and consumer sentiment is nearing a 70-year floor. Meanwhile, the stock market keeps climbing, and unemployment remains around historic lows. So, what’s really happening? Are we in the clear, or is something big about to break? J Scott is back to share his thoughts on the state of the economy and the warning signs investors can’t afford to ignore. The Fed seems to have lost much of its influence over interest rates, and bond investors aren’t buying the rhetoric that this bout of inflation is short-term. In the housing market, supply and demand have fallen, bringing transactions to a standstill—all while pre-foreclosures are slowly rising. And that’s just the beginning. Everyone’s got one eye on AI, the wild card that could send everything spiraling. We’re unpacking the three factors that will cause the next recession, what the next six months could look like, and how investors can prepare their real estate portfolios for what comes next. In This Episode We Cover J Scott’s short- and long-term economic forecast The three factors that will cause the next global recession Why even the “strong” stock market and job market feel unstable Where interest rates could be headed in the coming months Why more distress is on the table for residential real estate How real estate investors can best prepare for an economic downturn And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders On the Market 432 – J Scott: We Have 1-2 Months Before the Economy Begins to Break J Scott's BiggerPockets Profile Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Real Estate by the Numbers Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-472. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
- 1 weeks ago37 min
If You’re Making More Money Than Ever But Still Feel Broke, Hear This
The affordability crisis isn’t improving. Gas is above $4 per gallon, inflation just hit 3.7%, and paychecks aren’t keeping pace. This is a tough spot for the American economy, but why does it feel like we’re getting hit on all sides of the affordability spectrum? Today, I’m breaking down the American household’s affordability crisis, and whether it’s a modern spending problem or something much, much deeper. We’re going into each lever that’s curbing affordability in the United States: wages, prices, savings rates, which generations are being hit hardest (not much of a surprise), overconsumption, and subscriptions that used to be one-time charges. I’ll also track the progress from the past three decades (2019, 2009, and 1999) to see where we went so wrong. If you make more money than ever but are still shocked by how little you can save or how much necessities cost, you’re not alone. We’re breaking down why Americans feel so squeezed, which prices are hitting hardest, and why a pay raise (unless it’s colossal) may not be enough to solve this. In This Episode We Cover The affordability crisis broken down and why rising wages aren’t solving the problem The biggest price jumps on products and services that are outpacing wages America’s biggest failure when it comes to economically setting up the next generation Why even the higher-income earners still feel broke in 2026’s economy Generations that are hit the hardest by a myriad of expenses The overconsumption and subscription traps that are keeping Americans spending What real estate investors must do to prepare now for the affordability crisis among renters And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Property Manager Finder Dave's BiggerPockets Profile On the Market 469 - A Housing Market “Recovery” Is Further Away Than We Thought Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-471. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
- 1 weeks ago39 min
The “2nd Wave” of the Commercial Real Estate Crash Is Close w/Brian Burke
Commercial real estate prices have fallen 20%-50% from their peaks just a few years ago—but the slide may not be over yet. A “second wave” of the commercial real estate crash is on the horizon now that interest rates are back around 7.5%, and struggling multifamily, office, and commercial investors who thought a long-term refinance would save them are now in a stickier spot. So…how much lower can commercial real estate prices go? He was right about past crashes, so we asked Brian Burke to join us again on the show for his take. Brian, quite famously by now, sold most of his multifamily portfolio at the peak of the post-COVID boom, took profits, and sat on the beach for a few years while strategizing when (and how) to get back into the market. But even Brian isn’t convinced this is the bottom for the multifamily market—rent concessions are plentiful, lease trade-outs are negative (new renters are paying less than previous renters), and cap rates haven’t expanded enough. But the time to strike could be coming soon. Today, Brian shares the game plan he uses to gauge when to get back into a bottoming-out market, and what buyers must do to get a great deal, great funding, and a great exit. In This Episode We Cover Why the commercial real estate crash may not be over yet (a “second wave” is coming) Incoming cap rate expansion and why brokers are still pushing almost illogical multiples The “four-way traffic collision” that caused the commercial real estate value drop Why trying to time the bottom will cost you, but getting in a little bit late will not What a “good” multifamily deal looks like to Brian in today’s market And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Property Manager Finder On The Market 440 - Commercial Real Estate Is Quietly Setting Up for a Decade-Long Bull Run Brian's BiggerPockets Profile Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Praxis Capital Grab Brian’s Book, The Hands-Off Investor Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-470. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
- 2 weeks ago37 min
A Housing Market “Recovery” Is Further Away Than We Thought
The housing market isn’t going back to “normal” anytime soon. In fact, it could take significantly longer than many of us thought. Rates are around 7.5%, median home prices hover near $400,000, but your salary is not keeping pace. Something needs to change: is it rates, prices, incomes, or a combination of all three? I did the math and have an answer for how long it will actually take for the housing market to recover. So first, what does a "normal" housing market actually mean? We’re going to look at two data sets: 1989-2026 and 2019 levels, the last year before pandemic-fueled inflation started to boil the housing market. Back in 2019, Americans spent only around 15% of their income on housing payments; today, it’s nearly 25%. So, how do we return to a market where homes are actually affordable? I’ll walk through each scenario: wages rising significantly, mortgage rates falling, and home prices crashing, and then paint a picture of what happens if all of them (reasonably) move in the right direction. If someone is convincing you the market is about to get much cheaper, or much more affordable, or that you should just wait until it’s easier to buy…good luck. In This Episode We Cover Exactly what needs to happen for housing affordability to return to “normal” levels The three “levers” that control housing affordability, and which are likely to move Why it could take years (or even decades) to get back to the average affordability level Are we stuck in a new era of mega-expensive housing payments? Why waiting to buy a home (or your next rental) could be a very long bet And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates Dave's BiggerPockets Profile NAR Housing Affordability Index Grab the Book, Real Estate by the Numbers Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-469. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
- 2 weeks ago25 min
Nearly Half of Buyers Get Concessions as Fed Warns Prices Must Drop
A Fed official says what we’re all thinking: home prices must drop—and sellers seem to have gotten the message. Per a recent Redfin report, 44.7% of home sales included seller concessions such as price cuts, rate buydowns, covering closing costs, or even renovations, repairs, and expensive layout changes. So, if you’re a buyer, how do you get the most from your seller on the next deal? We’re back with this week’s headlines! We’ve brought good news for buyers, scary news for sellers, and strange-smelling stories about multifamily investors. Seller desperation is peaking as concessions offer buyers the biggest opportunity in six years. Even the Fed is taking note, as one official warns about home affordability and why prices need to drop to make progress. Now, what the heck is that black stuff behind the fridge? That’s the question multifamily investors are asking themselves as mold-based litigation ramps up and renters prepare to get paydays thanks to some severe spores. If you own a home in the Northwest, the South, or anywhere else that gets humid, here is what you should do to avoid a pricey repair. In This Episode We Cover The rise in seller concessions and how to unlock price cuts, lower mortgage rates, or covered closing costs The $70K concession James is making to literally rearrange a floor plan to sell a house A Fed official’s warning on home prices and why they may still be too high The deals popping up and sitting on the market that could be solid rentals A major mold problem: Why you should check your rental ASAP (before a lawyer gets involved) And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area Redfin: Nearly Half of Homebuyers Get Concessions From Sellers as Most Markets Tip in Buyers’ Favor Realtor: Fed Official Sounds Warning on Housing as Affordability Hits 21-Year Low Bisnow: Mold Is Growing Into Major Problem For Apartment Owners Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Henry's BiggerPockets Profile James' BiggerPockets Profile Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile Grab The Book on Negotiating Real Estate Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-468. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
- 3 weeks ago36 min
The American Economy Enters Its “Lost Decade”
America could enter what nobody wants—a “lost decade.” No huge gains, no massive price drops, just a slow, stagnating market where inflation eats away at the returns we once thought were normal. Stocks are already massively overpriced according to the CAPE Ratio and the Buffett Indicator, real estate is unaffordable and already seeing real price declines, and commercial has fallen off the proverbial cliff. Can we go up from here? The argument isn’t looking optimistic. So, if it’s about to be a whole lot harder to make a return on real estate, in the stock market, or anything else worth buying, what should you do? Today, Dave breaks down America’s “lost decade” and what to do to protect your wealth from inflation erosion that looks more likely by the day. There are ways to maintain strong real estate returns along the way, but most investors take the easy route and fail to profit because of it. You can escape this “lost decade,” but only if you’re prepared for it. In This Episode We Cover America’s “lost decade” that could upend returns for real estate, stocks, and more The one asset class that has potential upside in the coming years Why “not investing” is not a strategy that will save you from wealth erosion Why we could go years without home price appreciation or solid stock gains The two indicators flashing right now that are signaling an overpriced market And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area Dave's BiggerPockets Profile On the Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-467. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
- 3 weeks ago44 min
America Doesn’t Have a Housing “Shortage” (It’s Something Much Worse)
For years, we’ve been told that the United States is short millions of homes, and that building more units is the key to solving the affordable housing crisis. But a 2024 study from Kirk McClure and Alex Schwartz reaches a different conclusion and suggests that the housing shortage narrative may be built on a shakier foundation than we’ve been led to believe. Kirk, professor emeritus at the University of Kansas, joins today’s show to dig into the actual Census data gathered from 2000-2020 and whether it really points to a nationwide shortage…or something much different. If we don’t have a supply problem, why are homes and rents still so expensive? Should policymakers rethink their push for new construction? And where could government dollars have the greatest impact? We’ll unpack the implications of Kirk’s findings, why home prices can remain elevated when there are millions of vacant homes available, and whether today’s housing policies are actually helping the people who need it most. These answers could upend how we think about the housing crisis and give real estate investors another perspective on where the market might be headed. In This Episode We Cover Findings from Kirk’s research on America’s housing “shortage” Where government dollars can actually help solve housing affordability The real reason home prices and rents haven’t fallen, despite oversupply Why declining household formation is tied to affordability, not housing supply Why America’s K-shaped economy continues to worsen And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area A Glut of New Inventory is on the Way—How Should Investors Prepare? Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Study: Where Is the Housing Shortage? Decennial Census Data Buy the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-466. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
- Oct 1, 202636 min
The Trillion-Dollar Bubble Grows Bigger
AI could lead to an extinction event, but don’t worry, the stock market will be hitting all-time highs on the way there! We’re entering a new phase of the artificial intelligence race where now CEOs from OpenAI and Anthropic are practically begging for industry-wide regulation. This all seems too… convenient. What’s really behind this new AI regulation push, and how close are we to a society-shaking event? Dave is back to give his full take on the AI race. A lot has happened recently—warnings of dangers to humanity, rogue agents setting up untraceable communications, and AI CEOs conveniently wanting to join forces. First, we’ll touch on the Hugging Face incident that triggered an unprompted cyberattack that human oversight was kept out of; then the economic risks to all Americans (what happens if this AI bubble bursts); and finally why these CEOs are suddenly pushing regulation so hard. Let’s get into the financials, though: these companies are losing billions of dollars every year and have extremely optimistic projections to hit. The question is, what happens if they’re off the mark? Past bubbles resulted in an almost 80% stock market crash…but this time, the AI industry is even bigger. In This Episode We Cover Why top AI companies suddenly want the government to “regulate” the industry The chances of an extinction event now that AI agents can go rogue without our knowledge The risks to real estate, the stock market, and many Americans’ retirement accounts The trillion-dollar bubble that is looking a lot like the dot-com and railroad bubbles of decades past Why citizens from other countries are so much more optimistic about AI than Americans And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area On The Market 390 - An Economic Bubble is Forming…Just Not for Real Estate Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-465. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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