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Excess Returns: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more.
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- 2 weeks ago50 min
Dr. Daniel Crosby on Behaviorally Optimal Portfolios, Risk Composure and the Casino Myth
Daniel Crosby explains why investors can lose money in winning funds and how to build a portfolio they can actually hold. Picking the right investment is only part of the challenge; staying with it through discomfort is where behavior can overwhelm the plan.In this episode of Excess Returns, psychologist and Orion Chief Behavioral Officer Daniel Crosby joins Matt Zeigler to discuss the new paperback edition of The Behavioral Investor. Daniel shares the story of a fund that returned over 18% annually for a decade while its average investor lost money, then explains how safety, stability, and success portfolios can help align investment decisions with human psychology. They also explore gambling apps, the limits of risk questionnaires, social media feedback loops, and the human side of financial advice in an AI-driven world.Topics covered:- Why a fund's returns can look very different from the returns its investors earn- Building safety, stability, and success buckets around different financial needs- The differences between risk tolerance, risk capacity, and risk composure- Why knowing what to do does not guarantee doing it during a drawdown- Daniel Crosby's case for rules, diversification, and meaningful benchmark differences- How sports betting and prediction markets blur the distinction between investing and gambling- Why recent market experience can create unrealistic expectations about future returns- Education, environment, and encouragement as tools for changing investor behavior- How algorithms reinforce market biases and why excitement can signal a blind spot- Where AI can free financial advisors to spend more time on human relationshipsThe Behavioral Investor - paperback edition:https://link.amazon/B00hgkHGGDaniel Crosby on X:https://x.com/danielcrosbyOrion Behavioral Finance:https://orion.com/behavioral-financeResearch discussed:The heat of the moment: the effect of sexual arousal on sexual decision makinghttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/bdm.501Chapters:00:00 Daniel Crosby and The Behavioral Investor04:51 Why winning funds can have losing investors11:46 Risk tolerance, capacity, and composure17:38 Stability portfolios and rules-based stock selection23:06 Investing, gambling, and prediction markets27:27 Recency bias and unrealistic return expectations31:30 Addictive apps and changing investor behavior35:48 Investor distractions and the media diet40:51 Investment excitement, humility, and AI45:00 What music reveals about consistency and experimentation49:29 Where to find Daniel Crosby and the bookLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 2 weeks ago1h 4m
Baird's Tech Strategist Says This Isn't 2000. So Why Is He Warning Against Buying the Dip?
Ted Mortonson of Baird explains why conviction in the AI boom doesn't mean buying every dip in tech stocks.He joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to explain what experienced technology investors watch before putting money back to work—and why he still sees AI as the most powerful technology cycle of his career.The discussion moves from lessons of the dot-com bust to the companies Ted believes can capture AI's profits. They explore the importance of free cash flow, the financing demands of the data center buildout, and how large IPOs could force portfolio managers to sell existing holdings. Ted also shares his views on Apple, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla, and SpaceX, before closing with lessons from his service as a naval aviator.Topics covered:- Why Ted Mortonson's institutional clients aren't rushing to buy the semiconductor dip- What past tech cycles teach about taking profits, preserving capital, and waiting for selling to settle- Why Ted Mortonson sees a stronger long-term AI opportunity than the dot-com cycle- How geopolitics, energy costs, regulation, and investor sentiment shape technology investing- Why free cash flow, engineering resources, and manufacturing scale matter for AI beneficiaries- Financing the infrastructure buildout before enterprise adoption delivers returns- How large IPOs and circular financing can create risks for existing shareholders- Ted Mortonson's concerns about Apple and his outlook for Meta, Tesla, and SpaceX- Optical networking, advanced chip architectures, and high-bandwidth memory- Navy lessons on decisions under uncertainty, teamwork, and integrityChapters:00:00 Ted Mortonson on the risks facing tech investors05:42 Market sentiment and why his clients aren't buying yet12:00 Dot-com lessons and the danger of buying every dip16:17 Why Ted sees a different AI cycle23:06 Which companies could capture AI's profits?27:38 Regulation and financing the AI buildout35:10 Can the market absorb massive AI IPOs?39:30 Circular financing and the Tesla-SpaceX thesis46:06 Apple, Meta, and competing AI strategies54:19 SpaceX, advanced chips, and memory technology58:26 Lessons from serving as a naval aviator01:03:35 Closing thoughtsTed Mortonson at Baird:https://www.rwbaird.com/corporations-and-institutions/institutional-equities-research/team/ted-mortonson/Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 2 weeks ago57 min
He Asked 25 Finance Pros How They Invest Their Own Money: Brian Portnoy on What the Models Get Wrong
Brian Portnoy of Shaping Wealth explores why experienced investors build very different portfolios—and what that means for your own money.In How I Invest My Money Volume Two, 25 new contributors explain how they invest their personal wealth. Brian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss what those stories reveal about the gap between an optimal portfolio on paper and one you can actually live with.From large cash reserves and paid-off mortgages to investments in their own businesses, their choices reflect family needs, career risk, and priorities that a model can struggle to capture.The conversation also explores why low-cost index funds don't settle every investing question, how financial professionals think about bonds and alternatives, and what it means to compound relationships, knowledge, and opportunities alongside money.How I Invest My Money Volume Two:https://link.amazon/B0aVpNlfSTopics covered:Why knowing how markets work doesn't produce one right portfolio for everyoneWhat Ben Hunt and other contributors reveal about investing beyond a brokerage accountConnecting personal goals to asset allocation and risk toleranceWhy business ownership and household needs change the role of stocks and bondsWhy financial professionals may deliberately hold substantial cash reservesThe difference between spreadsheet optimization and a portfolio you can stick withPaying off a mortgage, feeling secure, and accepting the opportunity costThe complexity and illiquidity that can come with alternative investmentsMatt Zeigler's approach to compounding human, intellectual, social, and financial capitalBrian Portnoy's experience editing the book with his son Zach and sharing opportunities across generationsChapters:00:00 How finance professionals invest their own money05:35 Why investing extends beyond index funds12:20 Connecting financial goals to portfolio choices18:32 Why investors choose different stock and bond allocations25:05 Cash reserves, career risk, and peace of mind34:55 Paying off a mortgage: security versus opportunity cost40:11 Alternatives, complexity, and the investment industry44:40 Matt Zeigler on investing in more than money52:22 Brian Portnoy on family, opportunity, and working with his sonShaping Wealth:https://www.shapingwealth.comFollow Brian Portnoy on X:https://x.com/bportnoy_Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 3 weeks ago1h 9m
Rob Arnott on the Hidden Costs of Passive Investing and the Real Winners From AI
Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and chairman of Syzygy Asset Management, examines S&P 500 concentration and who could benefit most from AI. Owning today’s market leaders is not necessarily the same as owning tomorrow’s biggest investment winners.Subscribe on SpotifySubscribe on AppleIn this episode of The Intangible Economy, Rob joins Kai Wu to explore how index construction shapes what investors own, why index additions can create hidden costs, and why he would consider buying a richly valued IPO before index funds have to buy it. The conversation also covers AI’s shift toward capital-intensive business models, GPU depreciation, intangible assets, and the importance of testing investment ideas rather than chasing impressive backtests.Topics covered:Why Rob Arnott sees a real AI revolution alongside risks in the prices of its leading stocksHow AI customers could capture value beyond the infrastructure buildersValuation changes versus fundamental growth in large and smaller companiesTesla, SpaceX, and the price pressures surrounding index inclusionHidden implementation costs that do not appear in an index fund’s expense ratioSelecting index members by business size rather than market valueAI financing, customer economics, and the risk of rapid hardware obsolescenceR&D, intangible assets, and what conventional book value can missCompetitive moats, leadership, and creating value for customersUsing AI in research while resisting overfitting and performance chasingResearch discussed:The Active Side of IndexingFundamental GrowthLearn more about Syzygy Asset Management.Timestamps:00:00 Rob Arnott on index concentration and AI’s future winners12:13 What S&P 500 investors own and pay for20:35 Why Rob Arnott would buy before index inclusion25:41 Hidden index costs and fundamental membership rules30:37 Passive investing’s embedded decisions36:40 Big Tech’s shift from asset light to capital intensive42:41 GPU depreciation and economic obsolescence47:03 R&D, intangible assets, and value investing51:04 How durable are competitive moats?59:01 Using AI in business and investment research01:05:11 Performance chasing and the backtest trap Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 3 weeks ago1h 3m
The S&P 500 Is Only 50 Stocks. 70% of the Index Is in a Correction. Did the Sell-Off Already Happen?
Paisley Nardini of Tema ETFs explores AI investing, S&P 500 concentration, and how to build a portfolio around changing market risks. How can investors participate in powerful growth trends without making every holding a bet on the same outcome?In this episode of Excess Returns, Paisley joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss the risks beneath a resilient stock market, why tomorrow’s AI winners may differ from today’s leaders, and where she sees opportunities in power and infrastructure. They also explore private-company exposure inside ETFs, the role of thematic funds alongside a passive core, and why knowing what you own matters more than the number of holdings in your portfolio.Topics covered:What weak market breadth reveals beneath the headline indexesInterest rates, midterm elections, and the limits of historical market patternsPrediction markets as a source of information for investorsAI earnings expectations, debt financing, and the risk of slowing growthWhy bonds can provide income without reliably offsetting equity riskSmall-cap profitability and the importance of quality screensAI bottlenecks, photonics, power demand, and infrastructure investmentPrivate-company exposure in ETFs: liquidity, fees, and investment rationaleUsing thematic strategies as satellite positions around a passive corePortfolio concentration, investment humility, and staying flexibleLearn more about Tema ETFs.Follow Paisley Nardini on X.Timestamps:00:00 Introduction and the risks beneath the market04:37 Higher rates and the midterm election outlook09:17 What investors can learn from prediction markets13:36 AI growth expectations and changing market leadership19:50 Portfolio risk, bonds, and faster market drawdowns26:09 The AI bubble debate and small-cap quality33:45 Who benefits from AI beyond the hyperscalers?39:29 Energy infrastructure and putting AI to work45:54 Private-company exposure inside ETFs52:01 Where thematic investing fits in a portfolio58:32 Commodities, S&P 500 concentration, and humility Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 3 weeks ago1h 2m
We Asked T. Rowe Price's $17B International Manager Why Value is Winning Again — and What the S&P 500 Leaves Out
Colin McQueen of T. Rowe Price explains what is changing for international value stocks and how he separates cheap businesses from opportunities that can improve. Higher interest rates, industrial investment, and corporate reform are reshaping the opportunity set, but his process still starts with free cash flow and the price investors pay for it.Colin joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to discuss his evolution from deep value investing to a broader approach that includes quality businesses and restructuring opportunities. We explore why value struggled in the 2010s, what has changed outside the US, and how he uses valuation signals and diversification to manage risk.The conversation also covers AI suppliers and disruption, governance changes in Japan and Korea, opportunities and risks in China, and the case for financial stocks. Colin shares examples involving Samsung, Hitachi, and Rolls-Royce, along with his experiments using AI to challenge investment theses and recognize when conviction has become stubbornness.Topics covered:The lessons Colin McQueen learned from deep value, quality investing, and a difficult decade for valueHow higher rates and spending on infrastructure, defense, and power can change the opportunity setAI supply-chain opportunities and the uncertainty around future winners and losersValuing tangible and intangible businesses through normalized free cash flowUsing AI as an alternative voice when deciding whether an investment thesis is brokenThe US-international valuation gap, earnings growth, and diversification beyond techJapan's corporate reforms, Korea's value-up effort, and the importance of what is already priced inChina's contrarian appeal and the governance risks that accompany itHow restructuring, management changes, and better capital allocation can unlock valueBuilding a diversified portfolio and looking beyond quarterly earnings and market narrativesT. Rowe Price International Value Fundhttps://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/international-value-equity-fund/advisor-class.htmlTimestamps:00:00 Colin McQueen's evolution as a value investor07:04 Why deep value struggled in the 2010s11:20 Higher rates and a more balanced opportunity set16:20 International value, financials, and AI suppliers21:20 AI versus the dot-com era and managing valuation risk25:27 Free cash flow, restructuring, and AI-assisted research29:56 Comparing US and international valuations35:39 The risk dashboard and changing European markets40:00 Corporate reform and opportunities in Japan and Korea44:57 China, Asia ex Japan, and financial stocks49:31 Global connections and why a stock market isn't an economy54:55 Diversification and researching corporate turnarounds59:57 Looking beyond quarterly earnings and extreme narratives Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 3 weeks ago1h 3m
Tech Is Rolling Over. Yields Are Falling. Why Jim Paulsen is Watching the Walmart Recession Signal
Jim Paulsen sees a risk of a stock market correction as financial conditions tighten and investors grow comfortable with tech's long run of leadership. But his warning does not require a recession or the end of the bull market.In this month's Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to walk through the charts behind his cautious outlook. He explains how rising yields, oil prices, and a firmer dollar can affect the economy with a lag, why favorable seasonality may offer less support than investors expect, and how a slowdown in technology spending could challenge market leadership.We also explore the signals Jim sees in retail, housing, employment, and Walmart's relative performance. He closes with a possible path through a correction: slowing growth, lower inflation and yields, and a recovery that could give the bull market another run. His seven lagging sectors, the "Modest Seven," are central to that case.Topics covered:Why Jim Paulsen is cautious without making a recession or full bear-market callHis financial-conditions gauge and the risks of tightening into an already pressured economyHow restrictive conditions can weaken the November-to-April seasonal advantageThe delayed effects of bond yields, oil prices, and the dollar on economic surprisesTechnology spending relative to GDP and why slower growth could matter for tech stocksAI adoption, pricing, and the challenge of turning investment into profitsHow two decades of tech leadership may encourage complacency and crowded positioningThe divide between AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the "Modest Seven"What sector performance, bond yields, and the Walmart Recession Signal suggest about growthWhy rate cuts may initially accompany falling stocks, and how a correction could set up another advanceFollow Jim Paulsen:Paulsen PerspectivesJim Paulsen on XTimestamps:00:00 Jim Paulsen's outlook: correction risk without a bear-market call07:41 Restrictive conditions and the seasonal buying period14:12 Why the Fed and investors interpret conditions differently20:28 Oil, yields, the dollar, and their lagged effects26:00 Technology spending relative to the economy30:18 Can AI break the historical pattern?35:00 Tech's long leadership cycle and investor complacency42:00 AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the Modest Seven47:06 Market signals ahead of economic reports and bond pressure53:00 Bond competition and the Walmart Recession Signal58:11 How a correction could lead to another bull-market run Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
- 4 weeks ago1h 6m
AI Productivity Is Real. 83% of Stocks Are 10% Off Highs. Why Does Barry Ritholtz Like Bonds Again?
Barry Ritholtz, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler explore why AI's real productivity gains don't automatically translate into an investing edge. From stock picking and market concentration to the financing behind the AI buildout, they separate enthusiasm for the technology from the economics of owning it.Subscribe to Click Beta on SpotifySubscribe to Click Beta on Apple PodcastsIn this episode of Click Beta, Barry Ritholtz and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler for a conversation about where AI is already changing their work and where investors should ask harder questions. Barry shares how his team uses AI to analyze portfolio drift and identify clients who may need a rebalance. The discussion also covers client relationships, consumer pricing, creative side projects, and why Barry is increasingly enthusiastic about bonds without calling an end to the equity bull market.Topics covered:Why widely available AI tools may improve research without creating a lasting stock-picking advantageMarket breadth, mega-cap concentration, and the potential impact of large tech IPOsData center financing, credit quality, and the risk of rapid technological changeBarry Ritholtz's use of AI to analyze allocation drift, taxes, and household circumstancesHow better meeting records can strengthen the human side of financial adviceLearning to collaborate with AI and asking better questionsThe debate over dynamic pricing, consumer data, and whose interests AI agents serveBaseball tools, astronomy dashboards, music discovery, and the joy of experimentingDeciding which tasks to automate and which activities are worth doing yourselfBarry Ritholtz's case for bonds, municipal income, and avoiding the reach for yieldFind our guests:Barry Ritholtz — The Big Picture - https://ritholtz.comRitholtz Wealth Management - https://www.ritholtzwealth.comBarry Ritholtz on X - https://x.com/RitholtzDave Nadig's work at etf.com - https://www.etf.comDave Nadig on X - https://x.com/DaveNadigTimestamps:00:00 Meet Click Beta: AI and the stock-picking question05:14 AI concentration and market breadth10:08 Tech IPO valuations and data center financing15:22 Barry Ritholtz: AI and portfolio rebalancing analysis20:58 Can AI improve the human side of financial advice?25:49 Better client questions and better prompts30:13 The AI imagination gap: collaboration versus search36:48 Dynamic pricing and the consumer-retailer arms race41:26 Consumer data and the incentives behind AI agents45:54 Astronomy, music, and testing your assumptions51:18 Automating busywork to make room for curiosity55:39 Creative experiments and choosing what to automate01:00:11 Why Barry Ritholtz is excited about bonds01:04:37 Bonds versus equity income and closing thoughtsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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About Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more.
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