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by Council on Foreign Relations
Every geopolitical event — a war, an election, a new tariff, a technological breakthrough — sends ripples through the global economy. On The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and her guests trace those ripples, examining how international developments shape markets, policy, finance, and the future of business.
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- 1 weeks ago41 min
Brazil’s Runoff Election Is a Close Race Between Lula and Bolsonaro
Brazil’s runoff is a dead heat, but markets are betting that Flávio Bolsonaro, son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, will win and finally rein in the country’s debt. This week on The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and CFR Senior Vice President Shannon O’Neil unpack why voters and investors want different things from Brazil’s leadership, and what this election could signal for Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela, and the region at large. Host: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Shannon K. O’Neil, Senior Vice President of Studies and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Angela Pinho, “20% say violence is the country's main problem, and 18% cite health, Datafolha points out,” Diario de Comercio Adam B. Ellick, “Online Gambling and Crushing Debt Are Transforming Brazil,” New York Times Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
- 2 weeks ago35 min
Lame Ducks, Black Swans, and the 2026 Midterm Elections
With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections just weeks away, Rebecca Patterson and Veda Partners Cofounder Henrietta Treyz discuss an impending confrontation over the debt ceiling in the lame-duck session. They warn that a 2011-style standoff could unfold if political brinkmanship and a lack of serious effort to stabilize the country’s debt trajectory continue. Host: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Henrietta Treyz, Co-Founder and Director of Economic Policy, Veda Mentioned on the Episode: “Direct Government Payments to U.S. Farm Producers, 2022–26F,” Economic Research Service USDA Anton Korinek, Charles I. Jones, Szymon Sacher, Tess Cotter, and Peter McCrory, “Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI,” The Anthropic Institute Pavan Acharya and Catherine Allen, “Here’s Why Republicans Are Worrying About High Gas Prices Ahead of the Midterms,” Politico Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
- 3 weeks ago48 min
What We Got Right (and Wrong) This Year
This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack what they got right—and wrong—in their forecasts over the course of the year so far, covering the “Fragile Four” economies, OpenAI’s funding crisis, the AI IPO race, the Iran war, and more. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
- Oct 1, 202647 min
Central Banks in a Bind + Could AI Replace the FOMC?
This week on The Spillover, hosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, to discuss how the Federal Reserve has fallen behind the curve on inflation, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s task forces, and the role of AI in monetary policymaking. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Adam Posen, President, Peterson Institute for International Economics Mentioned on the Episode: Adam S. Posen, “China Still Has What America Needs,” Foreign Affairs Adam S. Posen, “Strategic Direction for Europe in the New Economic Geography,” Intereconomics Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
- Sep 25, 202650 min
Why Won’t Europe Do More For Ukraine? + The Rise of Pro-Russia Populism
This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson sit down with author and historian Anne Applebaum to discuss Europe, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the escalating geopolitical headwinds the region faces. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Anne Applebaum, Pulitzer Prize–winning author; staff writer, The Atlantic; Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University Mentioned on the Episode: Anne Applebaum, “MAGA Is Making the World Safe for Corruption,” The Atlantic Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
- Sep 14, 202647 min
Nvidia Bets Big on Hugging Face + Sebastian Sashimi + AI-Powered Toothbrushes
This week, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack Nvidia’s deal to purchase Hugging Face, the leading platform for open-weight AI models. The acquisition, they argue, highlights a battle between two visions of how the AI industry will develop, as well as concerns about safety and oligopoly. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Aditya Soni, Anhata Rooprai, and Harshita Mary Varghese, “Nvidia Bets $13 Billion on Open AI Models With Hugging Face Deal,” Reuters Sebastian Mallaby and Sebastian Elbaum, “The AI Trilemma,” Foreign Affairs Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
- Sep 10, 202652 min
Can the U.S. ‘Grow’ Its Way Out of Debt? + Taxing Wealth in the Age of AI
This week, host Rebecca Patterson speaks with Natasha Sarin, law professor and cofounder of the Yale Budget Lab, to unpack Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s claim that the United States can grow its way out of record debt, and whether AI can deliver the growth, jobs, and tax revenue needed to make that happen. Host: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Natasha Sarin, Professor of Law and Cofounder, The Yale Budget Lab Mentioned on the Episode: Natasha Sarin, “No Wonder Everyone’s Rallying Around This Terrible Idea,” New York Times “Scott Bessent Says US Can ‘Grow Our Way Out’ of $40 Trillion Debt—Economist Says ‘Not Feasible’,” TradingView “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036,” Congressional Budget Office Rebecca Patterson, “What the Treasury’s Buyback Surprise Says About the Bond Market,” CFR.org Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
- Sep 1, 202648 min
The U.S. Buys a Majority Stake in a Venezuelan Oil Company + Why Efficiency Is the Real Path to Energy Security
Host: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, Philip D. Reed Senior Fellow and Director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Why Nuclear Energy Is Making a Global Comeback,” CFR.org Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Crude Calculations: Why the Iran War Hasn’t Yet Caused an Oil Shock,” CFR.org Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Geothermal’s Time Has Finally Come,” The Economist Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Americans’ Electricity Bills Are Up. Don’t Blame AI,” The Economist Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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About The Spillover
Every geopolitical event — a war, an election, a new tariff, a technological breakthrough — sends ripples through the global economy. On The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and her guests trace those ripples, examining how international developments shape markets, policy, finance, and the future of business.
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