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The Julia La Roche Show: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Julia La Roche
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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- 1 weeks ago42 min
#425 Axel Merk: I Sat Down With Kevin Warsh — What the Fed Is Really Up To and Where Gold Goes Next
Axel Merk, founder and CIO of Merk Investments, which manages about $2.5 billion, joins Julia ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. He explains why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s goal of “removing a dose of accommodation” means a tightening bias without a sledgehammer. He also explains why gold has fallen during the Iran war: markets treat it as a temporary supply shock that pushes real rates higher. And he describes the decoupling he’s watching for that could free gold from the conflict. Merk, who met with Warsh at the Fed in August, says Warsh has been consistent and is trying to pull the Fed back from micromanaging the economy and from heavy forward guidance. He also describes the institutional pushback Warsh faces. He breaks down the four kinds of gold buyers and sees near-zero odds of a hike this week. He warns that the AI debt binge could eventually force lower rates. And he argues that AI’s massive capital needs are leveling the playing field for gold miners, which he calls some of the cheapest assets out there.Thank you to our partnersAugusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:https://www.merkinvestments.com/https://x.com/axelmerkTimestamps:Timestamps:0:00 Welcome Axel Merk1:05 The big picture: Warsh’s “dose of accommodation”3:17 Iran, the Israeli election and the midterms5:27 Why gold fell during the Iran war7:49 Will gold decouple from Iran?9:50 The four types of gold buyers12:18 Who is Kevin Warsh? Meeting him at the Fed15:16 What Fed independence really means17:40 Forward guidance: referee, not player20:24 What it’s like in the room21:07 Why not just abolish the Fed?24:18 What markets look like with a narrower Fed27:34 Blaming the Fed for populism29:56 Warsh’s cat-herding challenge31:18 Hike or hold this week?33:26 Volatility, cash and how to size risk36:03 Why he’s heavy in gold miners39:13 Parting thought: invest in your healthThe content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
- 1 weeks ago33 min
#424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming
In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris calls Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a “pump and dump.” He explains why the GSEs won’t be released during Trump’s term and lays out his own fix: buy back the public common shares and leave the U.S. as the sole shareholder. He breaks down Auction.com data showing foreclosure auctions up 25% from a year ago as COVID-era protections end and housing shifts to a buyer’s market, and he shares his advice for sellers: price to sell. Whalen also covers REIT earnings, United Wholesale Mortgage’s strategy shift and Annaly’s return to book value. He explains why he’s less bullish than his friend Ralph on 10-year Treasuries near 5%, and whether the Fed will hike or hold at next week’s meeting. He says he’s long energy, adding to gold on weakness and cautious on financials as credit problems surface. He closes with the risk he thinks nobody is watching closely enough: an unexpected turn in the Russia-Ukraine war.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps: 0:00 Welcome to The Wrap1:04 Bessent, Fannie and Freddie, and the “pump and dump”3:48 Whalen’s fix: the U.S. as sole shareholder5:08 Why “privatization” without control is a fraud7:48 Foreclosure auctions up 25%09:45 Is there a credit problem in housing?10:56 Advice for sellers: price to sell13:08 REIT earnings and UWM’s new strategy14:19 Annaly back to book value15:42 The case for 10-year Treasuries19:14 Why Whalen isn’t as bullish on bonds20:16 Bonds vs. gold vs. cash22:06 October FOMC: hike or hold?23:31 Natural gas down, diesel still high24:59 Positioning: energy, gold and caution on financials26:43 How income investing works28:41 The biggest risk nobody’s talking about32:00 What to watch next week The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
- 1 weeks ago1h 4m
#423 Jordi Visser: Why the AI Bears Are Wrong — and the One Asset He’d Bet On Right Now
Long-time macro investor Jordi Visser, founder of Visser Labs, makes his in-studio debut with a bold message: the only macro force that matters right now is artificial intelligence. He explains why the economy has become far less rate-sensitive since the iPhone launched in 2007, and why Anthropic and OpenAI’s leap from $30 billion to roughly $170 billion in combined annual recurring revenue marks the start of agentic commerce, with personal AI agents managing more of our lives. He lays out his “bank-pocalypse” thesis, where agents and crypto compress bank valuations by moving money to better yields instantly. He also argues that many veteran macro voices are wrong about AI because they don’t use it. Visser traces his own shift from perma-bear to tech optimist, from closing out his book before Lehman in 2008 to a life-changing trip to Silicon Valley’s Singularity University. He makes the bull case for agentic compute, names hacking and government pushback as the biggest risks, and closes with his most contrarian call: crypto, which he sees as a 100-to-1 long shot that could be the best-performing asset of the next year even if the S&P goes nowhere.Thank you to our partnersAugusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:X: https://x.com/jvisserlabsYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@JordiVisserlabsWebsite: https://ai.22vresearch.com/Substack: substack.com/@visserlabsTimestamps:0:00 Preview: the beginning of agentic commerce0:42 Welcome Jordi Visser1:15 The only macro that matters: AI4:14 Why the old playbook broke after 20076:44 AI’s iPhone moment: personal agents arrive10:07 How big is agentic commerce?10:36 Two economies: AI-native vs. enterprise12:28 The “bank-pocalypse” thesis14:01 An agentic run on the banks17:38 What a personal AI agent does for you18:56 The generational divide on AI24:50 2008: closing out before Lehman26:38 From perma-bear to “no more recessions”28:26 Silicon Valley and the singularity31:04 What he tells his kids about AI32:31 Why Bitcoin is the purest AI trade35:43 All moats are disappearing37:37 Why AI is so emotional for people41:08 Earnings up 30%, jobs at zero43:08 “AI victim status” and the doom narrative45:38 Climbing the ladder at Morgan Stanley48:08 Lifelong learning and longevity50:00 The bull case: agentic compute52:30 Is the AI debt a problem?55:00 The biggest risks: hacking and government pushback58:44 His contrarian call for next year: crypto1:02:27 Why the S&P could be flat a year from now1:03:27 The Peter Lynch lesson and a 100-to-1 long shotThe content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
- 2 weeks ago1h 14m
#422 David Rosenberg: The Fed Is Going to Trip, Recession Odds Now Above 50%
David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and author of Bear in the Bull Ring, says he has never seen so many imbalances in the economy and markets in his 40-year career. He argues we’re in an AI-driven bubble, now in “extra innings.” Ten stocks make up over 40% of market cap while the median stock is down nearly 20%. The Shiller CAPE has topped 40 and the equity risk premium has turned negative. Beneath roughly 2% GDP growth, he sees an economy held up by AI capex, a falling savings rate and stock-market wealth effects, while hiring stalls and real incomes shrink. Rosenberg warns that Kevin Warsh’s Fed risks a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock with a flat yield curve. He also flags fading fiscal stimulus, midterm gridlock and canceled data center projects as headwinds that put recession odds above 50-50 for 2027. His prescription is to de-risk without going to zero equities: shift toward Treasuries (two-year and 10-year notes), defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and REITs, gold, and some cash, so you’re one of the “strong hands” when the cycle turns.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Bear-Bullring-Independent-Thinking-ProtectsWebsite: https://rosenbergresearch.com/X: https://x.com/EconguyRosieTimestamps: 0:00 Intro: Protect your capital0:21 Welcome David Rosenberg1:36 Most imbalances in 40 years: a narrow market & fragile economy6:57 What’s propping up the economy: AI spending & the wealth effect10:23 Market call: CAPE above 40 & a negative equity risk premium13:46 Why nobody calls it a bubble until it bursts18:29 Don’t extrapolate: lessons from oil in 200823:17 Fed chasing headline inflation & recession odds26:09 Is Warsh’s Fed dangerous?31:32 Four supply shocks & where tariff inflation went36:09 Labor market weaker than perceived37:51 Will the Fed be forced to cut? The rookie Fed chair pattern41:49 Greenspan, 1987 & testing a new Fed chair42:40 Midterms, fiscal gridlock & a growth slowdown45:47 AI backlash & data center cancellations50:33 2001 recession, valuations & savings rate risk53:42 Where to be on the Treasury curve54:48 Bonds under-owned & boomers’ 55% stock exposure1:00:56 Recession vs. growth slowdown1:01:59 AI credit cracks: Oracle & CoreWeave1:04:29 Gold outlook & why Treasuries1:09:35 Book: Bear in the Bull Ring & independent thinkingThe content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
- 2 weeks ago34 min
#421 Chris Whalen: Double-Digit Inflation, Falling Home Prices & a Fed Forced to Hike
In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Julia and Chris start with President Trump’s $5,000 cash dividend promise, which Whalen calls “bread and circuses,” and why affordability, driven by gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran, could deliver a 50-seat House swing to Democrats. Whalen says we’re already on a double-digit inflation path, points to September’s PPI as the highest since late 2022, and argues the Fed may be forced to hike before the midterms, possibly over Chairman Warsh’s objection. Fresh from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Chicago, he shares why industry insiders like Stan Middleman expect home prices to soften 5–10% over the next three years, how construction costs are putting a floor under prices, and why layoffs are hitting mortgage lenders and realtors. He also covers United Wholesale Mortgage, bank earnings (JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s record $1.5 billion OCC fine), and why he sees the AI trade as circular finance heading for a reset. They close with viewer questions on banks holding low-coupon COVID-era mortgages and the outlook for Annaly.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome back 00:43 Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise: “bread and circuses” 02:54 Could Democrats see a 50-seat House swing? 03:16 Affordability as the top issue: gas, diesel and the Iran war 07:16 Are we on a double-digit inflation path? 08:28 Fed hike ahead? Yellen says “transitory” again 09:44 Demand destruction, fertilizer and food prices 11:31 Takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference 13:33 Stan Middleman’s outlook: smaller price reset than expected 15:24 Construction costs and replacement value as a price floor 17:13 Will the Fed hike before the midterms? Warsh, Lisa Cook and the Supreme Court 18:57 The mood in mortgage: layoffs and a tougher 2027 20:36 Is there a bull case for United Wholesale Mortgage? 21:58 Bank earnings: JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s $1.5B fine 24:36 The AI reset and circular finance 26:59 Viewer question: banks holding low-rate COVID mortgages 29:55 Viewer question: the outlook for Annaly 31:34 What Whalen is watching next The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
- 2 weeks ago42 min
#420 Larry McDonald: The Market Has Already Crashed. The Index Just Hasn’t Noticed
New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to explain why he believes the market’s surface strength hides serious stress underneath. He points to cracks in AI data center financing: canceled data center IPOs, collapsing CoreWeave bond prices, and a surge in convertible bond issuance from neoclouds, which he calls the “last saloon” warning sign last seen in 1999 and 2021. With consumers hit by higher rates, soaring diesel and jet fuel costs, and iconic brands like Nike, Home Depot and McDonald’s down sharply, McDonald argues the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle and that smart money now expects three rate cuts before three hikes. He describes an internal market crash masked by passive flows into mega-cap tech, explains the year-end “convergence trade,” and makes his case for why gold could run from $4,000 to $6,500 and why silver may be one of the best trades of the next 12 monthsThank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMKTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/Timestamps: 0:00 Preview: the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle0:19 Welcome Larry McDonald1:20 Learning from mentors and “cage matches”2:06 Why AI data center financing is breaking down4:53 Convertible bonds: the “last saloon”8:31 The ConvertBond.com story9:09 Credit warnings: canceled IPOs, CCCs and leveraged loans11:15 The million-dollar bet: three hikes or three cuts?11:49 The consumer takes four or five left hooks15:13 Why the Fed is faking its hiking cycle16:28 Record highs, but an internal market crash21:02 Passive investing and the convergence trade23:19 What could trigger the convergence: AI capex and the midterms24:43 The case for gold and silver27:28 Silver, solar and the rotation out of techThe content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
- 3 weeks ago37 min
#419 Chris Whalen: Mortgage Funeral, No Bond Rally & the Deficit Washington Won’t Talk About
In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to break down why affordability, the economy and the Iran war have put Republicans on the defensive, and why a Democratic Congress could mean two years of investigations and a tougher regulatory climate for markets. Ahead of the Mortgage Bankers Association annual in Chicago, Chris says the mortgage business is facing a “funeral,” with volumes and profits down, headcount still bloated from COVID, and plenty of firms quietly for sale. He explains why inflation and soaring construction costs are keeping home prices supported despite 7%+ mortgage rates, and why he’s pushing back on Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call. In Chris’s view, the federal deficit nobody in Washington or at the Fed wants to discuss is the biggest force behind higher long-term yields. He also covers the narrow, AI-driven stock market, stalled bank stocks, and viewer questions on capital gains taxes, home prices and whether energy stocks still make sense if the Iran war ends.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:00:00 – Intro00:49 – Midterms less than a month out: how Trump has hurt GOP chances03:11 – Affordability is still the No. 1 issue04:33 – MBA Annual in Chicago: firms quietly up for sale07:35 – How much downside is left in housing if rates hold?09:06 – Replacement cost vs. market value, and why builders are pulling back10:30 – Housing outlook: still a seller’s market11:59 – Why Chris disagrees with Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call14:01 – What’s really pushing the 10-year higher: the Treasury buyback misstep15:42 – Why the Fed won’t talk about the deficit18:33 – Are we headed for a debt reset or “Jubilee”?19:40 – Record S&P highs vs. AI bubble fears23:05 – Why financials are “dead in the water”24:26 – The mortgage industry “funeral”: downsizing and consolidation26:27 – Viewer Q: Where are mortgage rates and home prices headed?28:55 – Viewer Q: Should Congress hike capital gains taxes?30:50 – Viewer Q: Should you wait to buy energy until the Iran war ends?33:58 – What Chris is watching next weekThe content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
- 3 weeks ago34 min
#418 Ray Dalio on the Risky Period for Investors, Bubble Warnings, and a Coming Debt Squeeze
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins The Julia La Roche Show for a special episode featuring their fireside chat from the Greenwich Economic Forum. Dalio explains the five forces he sees driving today's world: the debt cycle, internal political conflict, the breakdown of the post-1945 geopolitical order, acts of nature, and technology, especially AI. He says rising bond yields reflect a basic supply-and-demand problem. Washington spends about $7 trillion a year but takes in about $5 trillion, and foreign buyers like China and Japan are pulling back. He warns that a debt "heart attack" is likely within the next two years. He calls the period after the midterms and through 2028 especially risky, and says markets are in a bubble by his own indicators, comparing today to the tech boom before 1929. Dalio also discusses why he recommends 5–15% in gold, why he holds only about 1% in Bitcoin, and where he sees opportunity: companies being transformed by AI, ASEAN countries, Singapore, the UAE, and inflation-indexed bonds with real yields near 3%. He closes with the three things that make a country successful. A special thank you to the Greenwich Economic Forum for having me as a moderator! Visit https://www.thegeforum.com/ Thank you to The Julia La Roche Show sponsors:Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: Website: https://www.principles.com/X: https://x.com/RayDalioLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/Timestamps:0:00 Welcome + Greenwich Economic Forum1:03 Dalio's five forces, and the lesson of Nixon in 19716:20 Acts of nature, a super El Niño, and AI as a world-changing force7:54 Is the U.S. moving from Stage 5 to Stage 6?9:15 Why bond yields are rising: supply, demand, and $2T deficits12:38 Is a debt "heart attack" coming? Dalio's timeline16:18 Midterms, internal conflict, and weak expected stock returns17:41 Are we in a bubble? Lessons from 192921:55 How Dalio is positioned: short debt, focus on diversification22:30 Why gold belongs in a portfolio (5–15%)24:35 Bitcoin: why Dalio holds only about 1%25:47 Where to diversify: AI adopters, ASEAN, Singapore, UAE, Europe, TIPS29:00 How the cycle plays out, and how to prepare31:25 What makes a country successful? Education, civility, and avoiding conflict33:54 ClosingThe content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
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About The Julia La Roche Show
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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