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by Mutual Broadcasting System LLC
STRAT – Strategic Risk Assessment Talk, is a forum with a preparedness mindset. Mitigating risks, creating systems of prevention and recovery to deal with potential threats, and understanding the objectives of a Business Continuity Plan. This is the podcast for leaders who are committed to being prepared. The program is hosted by retired Marine Corps intelligence officer and strategic risk assessment professional Hal Kempfer and investment banker Mark Mansfield.
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- 1 weeks ago29 min
STRAT | 21 OCT 2026 | Defeating the Houthis
What would it take to defeat the Houthis, and why could the campaign last for years? On STRAT, retired Marine intelligence officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer examines the Houthi threat to Saudi Arabia and the strategic choices facing a Saudi-led coalition. He explores how Iranian-supplied drones and missiles threaten infrastructure, investment, and regional security, while assessing the potential role of international military support. Kempfer outlines a possible campaign centered on securing Yemen’s cities, ports, and transportation corridors, disrupting weapons supplies, and pressuring Houthi forces in mountainous terrain. The discussion also considers lessons from Ukraine’s evolving drone war, the importance of stronger air defenses, and the growing role of autonomous systems. Beyond battlefield operations, Kempfer examines how diplomacy, tribal alliances, and support for Yemen’s internationally recognized government could shape the outcome. Listen for an assessment of the resources, risks, and sustained commitment that campaign could demand from Saudi Arabia and its partners.Takeaways:Houthi drones and missiles threaten Saudi infrastructure and investment.Iranian weapons supply lines represent a critical Houthi vulnerability.Cities, ports, and transportation corridors anchor Yemen’s strategic landscape.Mountainous terrain complicates military operations and Houthi supply routes.Ukraine’s drone war offers lessons for Saudi air defenses.International military support could strengthen Saudi defensive capabilities.Diplomacy and tribal alliances could influence the campaign’s outcome.Defeating the Houthis could require years of sustained commitment.#STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #DefeatingTheHouthis #Houthis #Yemen #SaudiArabia #Iran #MiddleEastSecurity #RedSeaSecurity #DroneWarfare #MissileDefense #MilitaryStrategy #RegionalSecurity #Geopolitics #DefenseTechnology #SupplyLines #StrategicAssessment #InternationalRelations
- 1 weeks ago25 min
STRAT | 18 OCT 2026 | Ukraine, Russia and US at a Crossroads
Ukraine, Russia and the United States face a pivotal moment as shifting energy policy strains alliances and complicates the search for peace. Retired Marine Intelligence Officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer examines President Trump’s relationship with President Zelenskyy, the legacy of Trump’s first impeachment, and the strategic consequences of Washington’s changing approach to Moscow. This episode explores Russian sanctions, a controversial diesel agreement, and how conflict with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz shape global fuel markets. Kempfer also discusses reported satellite service restrictions affecting Ukraine, competing accounts of an energy ceasefire, and Europe’s efforts to respond to uncertainty over American support. With congressional criticism mounting and midterm elections approaching, the conversation considers what these developments could mean for NATO, American credibility, defense partnerships, and adversaries including China, Iran, and North Korea. Join STRAT for an assessment of the risks, political calculations, and wider consequences of this foreign policy crossroads.Takeaways:Trump’s impeachment history provides context for current Ukraine tensions.Russia sanctions waivers raise questions about American strategic priorities.The diesel deal faces supply constraints and political scrutiny.Conflict with Iran complicates global energy markets.Reported satellite restrictions highlight Ukraine’s reliance on American technology.Competing ceasefire accounts reveal deep distrust between the parties.European allies weigh responses to unpredictable American support.Policy shifts carry consequences for NATO and American credibility.#STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #Ukraine #Russia #USForeignPolicy #DonaldTrump #VolodymyrZelenskyy #VladimirPutin #RussiaSanctions #DieselDeal #EnergySecurity #StraitOfHormuz #IranConflict #Starlink #Starshield #NATO #Geopolitics #GlobalSecurity
- 2 weeks ago24 min
STRAT | 11 OCT 2026 | The Russian Diesel Deal Dilemma
Can buying Russian diesel ease America’s fuel crunch, or will it deepen a strategic crisis? In this episode of STRAT, retired Marine Intelligence Officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer examines the proposed Russian diesel deal and the legal, political, and security questions surrounding it. He explores bipartisan congressional opposition, allied concerns, and the implications for Ukraine’s defense and efforts to constrain Moscow’s energy revenues. Kempfer also looks beyond the headlines to the pressures driving diesel shortages: conflict involving Iran, disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, damage to Gulf refineries, and constrained refining capacity. The discussion considers whether Russia can deliver meaningful supplies, how energy ceasefire claims affect diplomacy, and why promised imports may offer limited relief at the pump. From global supply chains to domestic politics, this episode assesses the risks of a controversial energy bargain and what it could mean for consumers, American credibility, and the broader balance of power abroad.Takeaways:Russian diesel purchases face legal challenges and bipartisan opposition.Allied objections complicate the proposed Russian energy deal.Diesel shortages reflect broader disruptions across global energy markets.Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten critical refined fuel supplies.Gulf refinery damage adds pressure to global diesel availability.Russia’s export capacity raises questions about promised deliveries.Energy ceasefire claims face scrutiny amid continued infrastructure attacks.Domestic refining constraints complicate efforts to lower diesel prices.#STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #RussianDiesel #DieselDeal #EnergySecurity #DieselPrices #RussiaUkraineWar #EnergyPolicy #OilSanctions #StraitOfHormuz #GlobalEnergyMarkets #FuelSupply #RefiningCapacity #Geopolitics #CongressionalOpposition #EnergyCeasefire #SupplyChainDisruptions #StrategicRisk
- 3 weeks ago26 min
STRAT | 06 OCT 2026 | California’s “Illegal Domestic Spying” Imbroglio
Retired Marine Intelligence Officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer examines California’s “illegal domestic spying” controversy and the questions it raises about homeland security training, federal funding, and government accountability. Drawing on his account of a 2008 training moratorium and later court testimony, Kempfer explores conflicting explanations for why a counterterrorism course was halted, then allowed to continue. He asks whether disputed curriculum taught nationwide could have affected investigations, evidence, and subsequent court decisions. The episode considers two competing possibilities: officials accurately described unlawful surveillance training, or their testimony misrepresented the FBI’s assessment. Kempfer also discusses the legacy of COINTELPRO, constitutional protections, and potential consequences for California agencies and federal partners. Throughout, he argues that unresolved allegations warrant clarification, transparency, and scrutiny. Join STRAT for a provocative discussion of institutional responsibility, the integrity of public safety training, and why the answers could matter far beyond California’s borders for communities and agencies across America.Takeaways:Kempfer questions conflicting explanations for California’s counterterrorism training moratorium.State testimony attributed disputed surveillance concerns to the FBI.Continued training raises questions about oversight and curriculum safeguards.Alleged surveillance practices could have implications for investigations nationwide.COINTELPRO’s legacy underscores the importance of protecting civil liberties.Federal funding disputes add another dimension to institutional accountability.Potential legal consequences depend on resolving the underlying allegations.Kempfer calls for clarification from California and federal agencies.#STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #California #DomesticSpying #HomelandSecurity #Counterterrorism #IntelligenceTraining #FusionCenters #FederalFunding #GovernmentAccountability #CivilLiberties #ConstitutionalRights #COINTELPRO #FBI #DHS #LawEnforcement #PublicSafety #SurveillanceOversight
- Oct 1, 202633 min
STRAT | 01 OCT 2026 | 9-11 Remembered, and How California Countered Counterterrorism
Twenty-five years after September 11, retired Marine Intelligence Officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer reflects on the attacks and examines California’s evolving approach to terrorism prevention. Drawing on his experience with the Terrorism Early Warning program, he traces the origins of Terrorism Liaison Officer training and explains how public safety partnerships helped identify potential threats. Kempfer alleges that funding priorities, conflicts of interest, and bureaucratic decisions weakened training, reduced suspicious activity reporting, and undermined regional preparedness. He connects those concerns to missed warning signs surrounding subsequent attacks, including the 2015 San Bernardino massacre, while arguing that prevention requires sustained education and cooperation. The conversation also considers accountability, institutional retaliation, and the risks posed by violent extremism and hybrid warfare. This anniversary episode asks what lessons from September 11 remain unlearned, and why effective intelligence sharing, training, and public vigilance still matter for protecting communities against today’s increasingly complex and evolving security threats.Takeaways:Remembering September 11 means examining enduring gaps in prevention.Kempfer traces California’s Terrorism Early Warning program origins.Terrorism Liaison Officers help public safety professionals recognize threats.Suspicious activity reporting supports early intervention and threat assessment.Kempfer alleges funding priorities undermined essential counterterrorism training.San Bernardino highlights Kempfer’s concerns about missed warning signs.Institutional accountability and cooperation remain central to effective prevention.Violent extremism and hybrid warfare demand sustained threat awareness.#STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #September11 #NeverForget #California #Counterterrorism #TerrorismPrevention #HomelandSecurity #TerrorismEarlyWarning #TerrorismLiaisonOfficer #PublicSafety #IntelligenceSharing #SuspiciousActivityReporting #SanBernardino #LawEnforcementTraining #GovernmentAccountability #ViolentExtremism #HybridWarfare
- Sep 28, 202627 min
STRAT | 27 SEP 2026 | CRINK on the Brink
Could mounting economic and security pressures fracture the informal alignment of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea? On this episode of STRAT, retired Marine Intelligence Officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer examines CRINK and the dependencies connecting four American adversaries. Kempfer explores how war, sanctions, disrupted energy revenues, and domestic strains could weaken Russia and Iran, with consequences for North Korea and China. He considers the role of hybrid warfare, the vulnerabilities of interconnected economies, and the potential regional fallout if a member’s government loses its grip on power. Looking beyond conflicts, the discussion asks how Western democracies should prepare for sudden political transitions and what lessons the Soviet Union’s collapse offers policymakers today. From military logistics to global supply chains, this strategic risk assessment examines how instability could spread across CRINK and why planning for possible upheaval matters before a crisis forces the world to respond under pressure with limited options.Takeaways:CRINK connects China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.Mutual dependencies could spread instability across all four countries.Hybrid warfare extends confrontation beyond conventional battlefields.Kempfer examines Russia’s economic pressures and military vulnerabilities.Iran’s economic strains could threaten the regime’s stability.North Korea’s Russian ties could become a strategic vulnerability.China’s debt and property risks complicate its strategic outlook.Western democracies should prepare for potential political transitions.#STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #CRINK #China #Russia #Iran #NorthKorea #Geopolitics #HybridWarfare #GlobalSecurity #EconomicInstability #RegimeChange #WesternDemocracies #UkraineWar #EnergySecurity #SupplyChains #ForeignPolicy #StrategicPlanning
- Sep 23, 202627 min
STRAT | 23 SEP 2026 | What Happens in Vegas… Happens in Cuba?!
Could a transformed Cuba redraw the economic map of the American Southwest? On STRAT, retired Marine intelligence officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer explores a scenario in which a capitalist, pro-American Cuba emerges as a major destination for tourism, investment, and development. From Havana’s potential revival as a casino resort destination, and possibly a new convention hub, to opportunities in manufacturing, technology, and renewable energy, Kempfer considers how change just 90 miles from Florida could reshape competition across the region. He examines what that future might mean for Las Vegas resorts, Nevada’s workforce, local tax revenues, and cities facing growing pressure on water resources. The discussion also explores possible trade and security arrangements that could influence investor confidence, while drawing comparisons with Eastern Europe’s economic transformation after the Cold War. This episode challenges business leaders and communities to think ahead about geopolitical shifts, emerging markets, and the strategic risks of assuming today’s competitive advantages will endure indefinitely.Takeaways:A transformed Cuba could reshape tourism and investment competition.Havana could challenge Las Vegas for casinos and conventions.Tourism shifts could pressure Nevada’s jobs and tax revenues.Potential security arrangements could influence investor confidence in Cuba.Trade opportunities could attract manufacturing and technology investment.Water constraints could challenge the American Southwest’s economic competitiveness.Cuba’s renewable energy potential could attract new development.Planning for geopolitical change matters before competitive advantages erode.#STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #Cuba #Havana #LasVegas #Geopolitics #Tourism #Investment #EconomicDevelopment #CasinoResorts #EmergingMarkets #AmericanSouthwest #Manufacturing #RenewableEnergy #WaterResources #Trade #Security #BusinessStrategy
- Sep 18, 202630 min
STRAT | 18 SEP 2026 | Russia’s War With NATO
In this episode of STRAT, retired Marine intelligence officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer examines what the program describes as an escalating Russian hybrid warfare campaign targeting NATO countries—and increasingly reaching into the United States. From a newly disclosed federal murder-for-hire case to alleged sabotage, cyberattacks, drone incursions, GPS jamming, infrastructure disruption, and political interference, Kempfer explores the tactics being attributed to Russian intelligence and proxy networks. The discussion looks at recent incidents across Europe, including threats to airports, communications cables, energy infrastructure, aviation, and maritime operations. Kempfer also examines how operatives may recruit third-party proxies through encrypted platforms while maintaining layers of plausible deniability. Finally, STRAT considers the strategic purpose behind gray-zone warfare: applying economic, social, and political pressure while remaining below the threshold of conventional military conflict—and what continued Russian pressure could mean for NATO, Ukraine, Europe, and American national security. Takeaways:Russia is accused of expanding hybrid operations against NATO.Gray-zone warfare operates below conventional military conflict thresholds.Critical infrastructure remains a major target of sabotage.Drones increasingly challenge NATO airspace and civilian infrastructure.Cyberattacks threaten maritime transportation and vital supply chains.Proxy recruitment can provide intelligence services plausible deniability.GPS jamming threatens European aviation and maritime navigation.Hybrid warfare combines physical, cyber, political, and information operations. #STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #Russia #NATO #HybridWarfare #GrayZoneWarfare #NationalSecurity #RussiaUkraineWar #Ukraine #EuropeanSecurity #CyberWarfare #CyberSecurity #MilitaryIntelligence #GRU #Geopolitics #GlobalSecurity #InfrastructureSecurity #ForeignPolicy
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About STRAT
STRAT – Strategic Risk Assessment Talk, is a forum with a preparedness mindset. Mitigating risks, creating systems of prevention and recovery to deal with potential threats, and understanding the objectives of a Business Continuity Plan. This is the podcast for leaders who are committed to being prepared. The program is hosted by retired Marine Corps intelligence officer and strategic risk assessment professional Hal Kempfer and investment banker Mark Mansfield.
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